The 2010 Oscar Race – Updated 3/7/10

Whose Turn is It Now?

You can practically already hear Academy Award producers shouting, after the fact, "Whose idea was this?" about changes in the ceremony that are doomed to be criticized for months after the last statue is handed out. Following Hugh Jackman's stellar performance hosting last year's Oscars, Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin have been chosen to dispel the adage that "less is more." The most glaring change in the program is the addition of five additional Best Picture Nominees, for a total of ten, in an attempt to broaden the show's mainstream appeal.

For a notoriously overlong awards show, you might imagine that a little sacrifice would be in order. Deleting the widely reviled song-and-dance numbers seems like a no-brainer. But no such trade-off is in store. Prepare yourself for a very, very long program.

Academy president Sid Ganis defends the switch as a "return to the past"–by which he means back to the depression era, when Americans camped out in movie theaters for a warm place to sleep. Maybe it's not such a bad idea in that light, but the real impetus seems to come from last year's exclusion of "The Dark Knight." Such obvious pandering to the film's fanboy supporters might get a pass if the adjustment weren't a 100% increase. Why not add one new slot, and see how that goes before turning the category into a marathon?

"Avatar," "The Blind Side," "District 9," "An Education," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds," "Precious," "A Serious Man," "Up," and "Up in the Air" are the ten films nominated for Best Picture. I would argue that, because it's better than "Avatar"–though no one in Hollywood will admit it–"District 9" gains the most advantage from the modification.

The Oscars are all about politics that frequently come down to whose turn it is to finally be handed the heavy little statue and precious seconds of limelight that have the potential to put some gas in the career tank. Seven years of war has finally put a past-due stamp on the Academy to shine a light in that direction. For that reason, coupled with the fact that no woman has ever received a Best Director Oscar, means that Kathryn Bigelow's "The Hurt Locker" is a heavy shoe-in for both a Best Picture and a Best Director Oscar. Personally I think "Inglourious Basterds" is a better movie.

Best Picture Prediction: "The Hurt Locker"

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow – "The Hurt Locker"

Jeff Bridges is long behind schedule for an Oscar win. His mesmerizing performance in "Crazy Heart" means that he's crowning for an "it's his turn" Best Actor win.

Best Actor